Trumps 2024 Tariff Policy Draws Attention from S&P Global Ratings: Dual Risks of Inflation and Credit Rating

In its newly released report, S&P Global Ratings expressed deep concerns about the tariff policy proposed by former US President Donald Trump during his 2024 presidential campaign. During the campaign, Trump proposed imposing a 10% tariff on all imported goods and a tariff as high as 60% on goods from China. S&P Global Ratings pointed out that although these proposals may not be fully implemented, they could serve as the starting point for Trump to ask for the moon when negotiating with trading partners after being elected.

The report pointed out that although the tariff amount is unlikely to actually reach the level proposed by Trump, even a general 10% tariff on all core goods imported into the US could have a significant impact on the US economy. S&P Global predicts that such a tariff policy could push up the US consumer price index (CPI) by as much as 1.8 percentage points, causing inflation to resurface in the first year of Trumps tenure. However, the report added that this inflation increase should be only a one - time change and will not have a sustained inflationary effect.

In addition, S&P Global Ratings also pointed out that considering the income loss of US households and the possible blow to US exporters, the overall drag on the US real gross domestic product (GDP) could be as high as 1 percentage point. This prediction indicates that the tariff policy will not only increase the living costs of consumers but also have a negative impact on the US economic growth.

In response to Trumps proposal to impose a high tariff of 60% on Chinese goods, S&P Global Ratings said that this measure could further exacerbate inflationary pressures in the United States. The inflation rate is expected to rise by 1.2 percentage points. At the same time, the drag on GDP could be around 0.5 percentage points. Such high tariffs would expose US companies to higher input costs, and consumers would have to pay higher prices for finished products, further squeezing the disposable income of American households.

S&P Global Ratings emphasized in its report that these tariff proposals could trigger inflation in the short term, as companies would face higher production and operating costs, and consumers would have to pay higher prices for goods. This would not only affect consumers purchasing power but also could lead to a decline in overall consumer demand, thus having a restraining effect on US economic growth.

The report also pointed out that if Trumps tariff policy is implemented, it would not only affect the US domestic economy but also could have a chain reaction on the global economy. High tariffs could lead to tensions in international trade relations, thus affecting the stability and efficiency of the global supply chain. For US companies that rely on international trade, this would mean higher operating costs and greater market uncertainty.

More seriously, S&P Global Ratings warned that if political developments affect the strength of US institutions, or endanger the status of the US dollar as the worlds major reserve currency, or even cause the already high US deficit to rise further, it may downgrade the US credit rating in the next two to three years. Currently, the US sovereign debt rating is AA+. In August 2011, S&P Global Ratings first downgraded the long - term sovereign debt rating of the United States from AAA to AA+ and set the rating outlook as negative. This marked the first time the United States lost its 3A sovereign credit rating since S&P began sovereign ratings in 1941, breaking the record of maintaining the highest rating for nearly a century.

The report of S&P Global Ratings pointed out that if the US fiscal situation deteriorates further due to high tariffs and trade tensions, it could have a negative impact on the countrys credit. This would not only increase the US governments borrowing costs but also may weaken its position and influence in the international financial market.

After Trump announced his victory in the 2024 presidential election, market concerns about his tariff policy further intensified. Analysts believe that Trump may use high tariffs as a bargaining chip to try to obtain more favorable conditions in trade negotiations. However, this strategy could lead to retaliatory measures from trading partners, further exacerbating global trade tensions and affecting the stability and sustainable development of international trade.

In response, economists generally believe that the United States should carefully consider the implementation of tariff policies to avoid causing excessive negative impacts on the domestic and global economies. Although tariffs can protect domestic industries to a certain extent, overly high tariffs will distort market prices, reduce consumer welfare, and may trigger international trade frictions, ultimately harming the economic interests of the United States.

S&P Global Ratings recommends that when formulating tariff policies, the US government should comprehensively consider their short - and long - term impacts on the economy to ensure the effectiveness and sustainability of the policies. At the same time, the government should strengthen dialogue and cooperation with trading partners, and resolve trade disputes through multilateral trade agreements and international cooperation mechanisms to promote a fair and open international trade environment.